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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-22T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33529/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the SW by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-09-22T21:36Z. The source of this event is an M3.7 flare and filament eruption from S23E65 beginning at 2024-09-22T21:12Z. This flare is seen clearly in SDO AIA 94 and 131, and the filament material is seen best in SDO AIA 304. Field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, and GOES SUVI 284 along with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131. This filament appears to deflect towards the SW as it progresses as seen in GOES SUVI 304. A faint EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 also appears to expand more to the west.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-25T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40923
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Sep 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2024  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 007 
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2024  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 007 
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Sep 2024  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 032

Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo CME with apparent angular width around 180 degrees erupted on 22 September at 21:37 UTC (first seen by LASCO C2), with a speed of around 1300 km/s. It is directed to the southeast but it has an Earth component that could hit the Earth around 6:00 UTC on 25 September, according to EUHFORIA.

Lead Time: 42.28 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-09-23T11:43Z

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